This column originally ran in The Standard-Times on Aug. 6, 2004.
Prospecting is an inexact science
By Nick Tavares
With another trade deadline come and gone another prospect has been shuttled out of the Red Sox farm system in the hopes of fueling another pennant drive. Along with Nomar Garciaparra, outfielder and former Wareham Gateman Matt Murton was shipped out to Chicago.
Hitting well in Single A Sarasota, Murton has the potential to become another jettisoned Boston farmhand someday, a la Brady Anderson, Curt Schilling or in the most extreme case, Jeff Bagwell.
Last year it was Freddy Sanchez who was sacrificed in an ill-fated deal to the Pirates for pitchers Jeff Suppan and Scott Sauerbeck. Both pitchers failed, and it's too early to tell if Sanchez really will become the .350-hitting second baseman Sox fans fear.
But dealing prospects hasn't always been such a bad thing. In the last ten years, the Red Sox have dealt away their share of prospects, and really haven't been burned too badly.
July 6, 1995
Sox get Rick Aguilera, RHP, Minnesota
Sox give up Frankie Rodriguez, RHP
Outcome Aguilera went on to close 20 games down the stretch for Boston, stabilizing the bullpen, and was on the mound when the Sox clinch their last division title.
Aguilera went back to Minnesota that offseason, but Rodriguez, at the time Boston's jewel minor league hurler, never secured a spot in the Twins' rotation. He was bounced around the Seattle and Cincinnati organizations afterwards, but never lived up to his top-prospect billing.
November 18 1997
Sox get Pedro Martinez, RHP, Montreal
Sox give up Carl Pavano, RHP; Tony Armas Jr., RHP
Outcome Pavano has since become an All-Star for the Florida Marlins, and had the World Series gone to a deciding Game 7, he would've been given the ball. Armas, in Single A ball at the time of the trade, has become a solid major league starter for the Expos.
And that Pedro guy? All he did was turn into the best pitcher since Sandy Koufax.
July 31 2001
Sox get Ugueth Urbina, RHP, Montreal
Sox give up Tomokazu Ohka, RHP
Outcome Ugie gave Sox fans two things that summer -- relief from having to watch Derek Lowe melt in the ninth inning, and the "Ugie Save," a term that lives on every time a pitcher gives up a double, two walks and still nails down the save.
Ohka has landed himself a spot in the Montreal rotation after riding the Pawtucket-Boston shuttle for three seasons. Though he's on the disabled list right now with a broken arm, his career 3.81 ERA isn't too shabby.
July 30 2002
Sox get Cliff Floyd, Outfielder, Montreal
Sox give up Sun-Woo Kim, RHP; Seung Song, RHP
Outcome Is there a T stop at Olympic Stadium?
Cliff Floyd came over in another futile run at the postseason and hit seven home runs and 18 RBI with a .316 average in 47 games. Not exactly earth-shattering.
Boston finished 10 1/2 games behind New York in the East and 6 games out of the wild card, while Floyd promptly left in the offseason.
Kim has bounced from the Montreal bullpen to the rotation and back -- and to the relief of Sox fans, has a 5.31 ERA to his name this season.
Seung Song, though, could be the dark horse of this deal. He threw a no-hitter in AA ball and is 7-2 for their AAA club in Edmonton. He could be a real commodity for the Expos by the time they move to Washington D.C., Northern Virginia, Portland, Stockholm or wherever Bud Selig winds up sticking them.
No one can really know what impact Murton will make in the majors, but one day he could step into Sammy Sosa's shoes in Wrigley Field launching moon shots over the ivy-covered walls.
But it's no sure thing.
Because for every Jeff Bagwell, there are three guys named Frankie Rodriguez to go around.
Nick Tavares is a columnist for The Standard-Times. Email him at ntavares@s-t.com
This story appeared on Page C1 of The Standard-Times on August 6 2004.





